Bruce,
I would agree with your points, though I think some of the sellers you mentioned may have just been putting on a brave face to encourage sales. The truly high condition Parker cream puffs with options and/or in the smaller gauges are still fetching high actual sale prices, and in some auctions I have seen, are selling for much more than the Blue Book would predict. But those are indeed the rare exceptions.
But with respect to the typical 12 gauge Parker in 70% or less condition, the Blue Book prices are currently far higher than any actual sales prices that I have observed in the last 3 years, which is why I won't bother buying the new edition of the Blue Book. For example, according to my (2011) 32nd Edition, a 60% VH in 12 gauge with extractors is listed at $3,500. Get real, Blue Book. That gun, properly photographed and auctioned on GB by a reputable seller would likely sell for about $1,500. That same 12 gauge in 60% condition with extractors in D grade is listed at $6,000....I mean, really? Can someone show me that auction please? The current auctions are proof positive that such a gun's fair market value tops out at around $2,500. In other words, for the commonly encountered Parkers on the market, being well over 90% in my view, the BB is more than double actual selling prices. And this is not to disparage Parkers in particular, as LC Smiths, Winchester 21s and Foxes in comparable condition have also suffered big sales price hits. Last year I purchased a 90% LC Smith Specialty grade with ejectors for $1,500. In 2007, you would have paid over $2500 for that gun in any auction; and believe me, I tried to buy one in enough auctions to know.
So with the limited exceptions that you've described, I do not think anyone seriously follows BB value when bidding on average collectible doubles these days. Many sellers obviously do still price by the book, which is why their guns aren't selling in auction after auction. That is not to say that I don't understand the frustration of collectors and dealers who bought in at high prices and now don't want to acknowledge that the floor has fallen out from under their feet. I too have a safe full of guns that I could not sell today for near what I paid for them 4+ years ago. But on the bright side, I also have some that I was able to purchase recently that I could not have afforded to buy 4 years ago. So in life, one must take the good with the bad, is all I'm saying. I just don't understand why, going on four consecutive and consistent years, the BB has not yet been updated to reflect this current reality, which may persist for years to come.
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