Reliability (or not) of TPS Tables

[edgarspencer]

I recently acquired a 24" 28ga., made in 1900. While the gun appears to have been freshened, in my opinion, it is in it's original configuration, as it left Meriden.

It's serial number, not surprisingly, is not in the book, and there are apparently no factory records from which a letter may be written.

The tables at the end of the grade chapter (Grade 0, VH) it states there were a total of Thirty Eight 24" 28ga. guns. However, In looking at the tables of 'All 28ga guns' there are only about 25 guns, in all grades, listed as having 24" barrels. Adding to the frustration of inconsistent information, the table listing short barreled guns (24" and shorter) lists several 28ga. guns which are not listed in the table of all 28ga. guns

All of the inconsistencies taken into consideration, it still appears the gun I acquired is the first 24" 28ga. gun.

[Dean Romig]

That gun should be listed in "Parkers Found".

Send the data to Josh so he can include it.
There are still an awful lot of Parkers, being 'firsts', 'lasts', 'onlys', 'one ofs' and other features of rarity or uniqueness that haven't yet made it to the "Parkers Found" listing.

When Josh receives a good number of additions to the list he forwards it to the Parker Pages editors for publication in upcoming issues. It's always very interesting and informative to read these new additions as well as to re-read the long-standing ones.

Best, Dean





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[Dean Romig]

Interestingly, 149020 is listed in that table as having 28" Titanic barrels, yet letters with its current 24" Damascus barrels.

Compiling such lists of data with cross checking several sources of information prior to publishing the results is no easy task and if there seem to be a couple of errors I think we can rest assured The Parker Story is FAR more accurate than the Serialization book.





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[Brian Dudley]

As we know, the tables and stats are based on surviving factory records. If records are missing, then those guns cannot be factored into the mix. I think there is some sort of extrapolation of data on the grade tables to account for missing records, but who knows how that was done and it cannot be taken as law. It just gets one close on some points.

[Dean Romig]

Bill Mullins could certainly answer these questions as best they can be answered.





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[edgarspencer]

Brian, I agree. But what lacks explanation is how a gun can be listed on the short barrel list, as being 28ga. having had 24" barrels (two consecutive guns, 113002 & 113003) and not being on the master list of 28ga. guns

[Dean Romig]

Why not go right to the source and shoot a PM to Bill?





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[Brian Dudley]

Brian, I agree. But what lacks explanation is how a gun can be listed on the short barrel list, as being 28ga. having had 24" barrels (two consecutive guns, 113002 & 113003) and not being on the master list of 28ga. guns



Easy. Because, even though you hold the gun in your hands, it simply does not exist. The sooner you accept it, the better off you will be.

[edgarspencer]

Easy. Because, even though you hold the gun in your hands, it simply does not exist. The sooner you accept it, the better off you will be.

I know how that works because I often find myself looking into a deep chasm of my wallet.

[Bruce Day]

Bill Mullins provided the authors method of extrapolation of numbers in TPS . I posted a photo of that text here before.

As for Mr Dudley’s question of who knows how the extrapolation was done, Bill knows and explained it .

[Harold Lee Pickens]

Hey Edgar, how 'bout some pictures, and BTW nice score.

[edgarspencer]

Bill Mullins provided the authors method of extrapolation of numbers in TPS .

I understand that but it doesn't explain why numbers show up on one list (short barrel list) as a 28ga., but those same numbers are not shown in the cumulative list of all 28ga. guns.

[edgarspencer]

Hey Edgar, how 'bout some pictures, and BTW nice score.

Harold, I don't have the gun in hand yet, and what pictures I have belong to the seller. I have a return agreement if I'm not happy with it.

[John Davis]

Maybe it falls under the category of Stuff Happens?

[Bruce Day]

There will be public flogging for such errors at the 2021 Southern.

[Garry L Gordon]

Anyone ever put together a book with thousands of data points?

[edgarspencer]

Anyone ever put together a book with thousands of data points?

Ma Bell used to

[Garry L Gordon]

Ma Bell used to

And look what happened to her!

[Dean Romig]

Anyone ever put together a book with thousands of data points?


!!!





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[George Davis]

Edger, I know it's not a Parker but I recently had the same experience with a Browning Superposed. Contacted the Browning Historical to document my guns. I was notified the serial number on one of mine didn't exist. Photos were exchanged and Browning Found a clerical error was made in Q 4 of 1966 and then was able to document my gun.

[Alfred Greeson]

Congrats on a great find, looking forward to pictures.

[Bruce Day]

The previous Browning Arms Company historian, now deceased , was a fine fellow and a Parker collector. From Ogden , he was a descendent of Mormon pioneers and was aware that John Moses Browning was likewise a Parker admirer .

[edgarspencer]

Easy. Because, even though you hold the gun in your hands, it simply does not exist. The sooner you accept it, the better off you will be.

You are wise beyond your years. I go to the 'book' and come down to where the SN OUGHT to be, and there are three missing numbers, then a couple, then more than 30 missing numbers. I go on the home page to see if factory records exist, and there are existing records for every one of those missing numbers EXCEPT my gun. Therefore I must conclude, in my advancing years, I have only imagined this gun, and am the proud owner of that which doesn't exist. Got to go and feed my unicorns now.....

[Dean Romig]

I sure hope you didn’t pay real actual money for it. You could take a picture of the cash and send the picture as payment for a non-existent gun.





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[Larry Stauch]

You are wise beyond your years. I go to the 'book' and come down to where the SN OUGHT to be, and there are three missing numbers, then a couple, then more than 30 missing numbers. I go on the home page to see if factory records exist, and there are existing records for every one of those missing numbers EXCEPT my gun. Therefore I must conclude, in my advancing years, I have only imagined this gun, and am the proud owner of that which doesn't exist. Got to go and feed my unicorns now.....

Who says there's nothing to do during the Covid. We can all read the daily adventures (misadventures) of Edgar, with highlights from Romig & Dudley.:rotf::rotf::rotf:

[edgarspencer]

In trying to understand why certain lists of serial numbers have gaps, yet links state records for a research letter are available, I had a great conversation with The Birthday Boy ( Our Research Chairman) yesterday.

The root of the issue is that certain STOCK books are missing, so that when data was being collected, guns below a certain grade (3, or D), were omitted for expedience. That didn't mean the info was missing, in only meant that SN was not listed.

My dilemma was trying to understand why the information on a serial number I was specifically interested in, was the only one of dozens in the immediate proximity, not available, yet nearly all of the other missing numbers, were actually in the original records of the ORDER book.

The answer was found by Chuck, through diligently cross checking several entries. The SN immediately before the one I was trying to document, not on lists, had the exact same attributes, equally rare, as the gun I was researching. That entry also stated it was part of an order for Two guns. So, the next number, which isn't necessarily in chronological order "Appeared" to be unrelated, but in fact, the last digit was partially obstructed, and was in fact the number for the gun is question. To verify it, the assumed number was checked and was unrelated. The previous gun (XXX86)had a red line through the top of last digit, a "6", and the next gun also had the red line through the top of it's digit making it look like a "1", when, In fact, IT WAS A SEVEN. BINGO!!!!!

I know this all still sounds confusing, but it's so simple in reality, and only the way I'm describing it makes it confusing.

[Dean Romig]

I get it Edgar, having spoken with Chuck a number of times relating to similar weird oddities in the records or lack thereof. I had spoken previously with Mark Conrad as well on similar issues prior to Chuck’s taking on the role of Research Chairman.

A good research chairman is an invaluable asset to our various collector organizations.




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[Larry Stauch]

Edgar; it all makes perfect sense as a person reads through it. It's obvious that the people that put TPS together only had so much time to dedicate to it and as a results there are some flaws. But, I think everyone would agree that it is light years ahead of anything else that's available out there. The humor and amusement comes in some of the descriptions and responses provided. All good stuff, no apology or explanation necessary.

[Kevin McCormack]

As I have posted numerous times in the past, in these situations one gets down to interpreting "forensic calligraphy." IMO I think Chuck is particularly good at it.

[Chuck Bishop]

You can see the entry for 99686 and 99687. I guess they didn't realize someone 120+ years later would try to read their writing:banghead:

[Dean Romig]

In these situations one gets down to interpreting "forensic calligraphy." IMO I think Chuck is particularly good at it.



Indeed, Chuck is the best we have!





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[edgarspencer]

This thread has begun to include thoughts from several other recent threads.

I mailed a wooden shipping crate to the seller, with what a reasonable person would have considered detailed instructions for packing. Nonetheless, the gun arrived in two days, via USPS Priority, with a chipped butt plate, and some minor, but noticeable chips in the toe, behind the chipped butt plate. Very disappointing when one considers the gun had survived in original shape for 120 years.

The letter reveals, what I had initially thought may have been the first V grade 28 ga. with 24" barrels, turns out to be the Second. As the letter states, the order from H & D Folsom requested Two Identical guns, and my new gun was the second of a consecutive pair. This fact alone is enough to negate any disappointment of it not being the first. Making it even more noteworthy, reading all the tables and grade data, these two guns may have actually been the first two 24" 28ga., Period.
The letter states that Folsom requested the gun weigh 5 and three quarter pounds, so I commend Mr. King for getting it within a half ounce. There is only the Kf mark and rough barrel weight of 211 stamped on the right barrel flat.

The barrels have been reblued in an acceptable finish, and the wood has been freshened, including pointing up the checkering. All things aside, I would still have been excited to have found this spritely little gem.
OK, Truth is my, my charter boat captain, hunter fisher diver daughter found it. She can text me a 4am, ANY TIME SHE WANTS.

[Dean Romig]

Yaaay Martha!!





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[Reggie Bishop]

Pictures of the little 28 are very much encouraged Edgar.

[Dean Romig]

Or insisted upon.





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[edgarspencer]

Since Romig has an overwhelming urge to troll everything in the background, I had to be careful where I set the gun down.

[Reggie Bishop]

Very nice!!

[Dean Romig]

Really nice! I can’t wait to heft that little beauty. Thank goodness for little girls, eh Edgar?

I won’t mention the cedar it’s leaning against or the green of the periwinkle that enhances the picture.





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[Brett Hoop]

Me thinks a certain she, just received more than a few phone numbers via messenger. I am thinking her commission will be reasonable.

[edgarspencer]

Since Romig has an overwhelming urge to troll everything in the background, I had to be careful where I set the gun down.



I won’t mention the cedar it’s leaning against or the green of the periwinkle that enhances the picture.
:banghead::banghead::banghead:

[edgarspencer]

Me thinks a certain she, just received more than a few phone numbers via messenger. I am thinking her commission will be reasonable.

I have an exclusive contract with her. She doesn't want to risk her inheritance.

[Gary Carmichael Sr]

Good acquisition, Edgar! Gary