NC has been known and used for gunpowders (and explosives in higher % N) for about 150 years now and the manufacturers will make, ship and store it "wetted" with water/alcohol to make it far less likely to ignite. Then it is dried and processed with other ingredients to make common smokeless powders. So let's say the XYZ Commercial Powder company is storing it wetted and in bulk at their facility as it had been for decades; now the Company must store it as if it were far more dangerous, with increased distances between magazines and other more stringent babysitting requirements. All that adds complexity and cost which of course is passed on if the XYZ Company wants to stay in biz. Now, if you were the CEO of XYZ would you step up and invest $ to come in compliance with the new regs, or cut back on storage and mainly limit production to military powders? Maybe just use the excess, if any, to make sporting shotshell and rifle powders and ammo? Rhetorical questions, gents.
Two years ago when the powder availability problem hit home I spoke with a gent with a commercial shotshell company who told me how its NC was made at a foreign plant and shipped here wetted in ocean going containers, and that just then there were limits enacted to reduce the number of containers allowed per ship.
Any guesses what might happen as the reclassified regs are rolled out?